DOI: https://doi.org/10.5513/JCEA01/27.2.4947

2026, 27 (2)   p. 420-428

Plamen IVANOV, Penka FILYOVA

Abstract

Rhagoletis cerasi poses a significant threat to cherry production across Europe, presenting a substantial challenge to agricultural practitioners. This study aims to enhance the techniques used for predicting seasonal pest invasions by focusing on climate factors, specifically air humidity. A comprehensive range of analytical techniques, including linear, multiple, and logistic regression, was employed to investigate the relationship between climatic variables and the incidence of substantial pest captures (defined as more than ten individuals per day). The results of the study indicated that when atmospheric humidity exceeds 70%, it is the predominant predictor of elevated R. cerasi activity (β=10.80, P=0.0302). Notably, while temperature appeared to constrain pest activity, precipitation did not demonstrate a statistically significant impact. The predictive models achieved an average explanatory power (R²=0.41), and visual analyses supported the finding that increased flight activity correlates with higher humidity levels. This research emphasizes the crucial role of microclimatic factors, including humidity, in refining pest monitoring and management strategies. Consequently, these findings may improve predictions and mitigate economic losses in fruit agriculture. There is optimism that the insights gained will lead to more effective solutions and a prosperous future for cherry growers across Europe.

Keywords

Rhagoletis cerasi, humidity, population dynamics, economic threshold, forecast model, plant protection

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